A quarter of American voters won’t vote if it’s Clinton v. Trump?

pouting-child-girlA Rasmussen Reports survey from last week said that 24 percent of American voters will sit out the next election if it’s Clinton/Trump.

The survey also found that:

Trump is more toxic within his own party than Clinton is in hers. If Trump is the Republican nominee, 16 percent of GOP voters say they would choose a third-party candidate, while five percent (5 percent) would stay home. Sixty-six percent (66 percent) would vote for Trump, but 10% would vote for Clinton instead.

I understand feeling disenfranchised, but not voting? Jaysus.

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  1. I’m not impressed with Rasmussen’s numbers extrapolated from the opinions of 1,000 likely voters. I’m not giving up my email to Rasmussen to get a look at its full topline questionnaire, (or pay for the privilege of seeing some demographic breakdown of that 1,000), but the one question doesn’t really tell us anything new…by Rasmussen’s own admission.

    Voting in this country is a choice, not a duty. The choice not to vote is based on the same set of circumstances affecting the decision of those who choose to vote. If the capitalist brand of Representative Democracy™ cannot inspire people to the polls, even when a sexist, nativist, white nationalist demagogue, (that’s Trump…just to be clear), threatens the status quo, (There’s Hillary!), then it’s the fault of the system, not the individual.

    But I think you’re going to see turnout close to or even surpassing 2008 numbers come November.

      1. Oh yeah. I will be genuinely surprised if it’s otherwise. Unpredictable. (It’s such an emotional cycle again.) But high turnout definitely.

      1. Either that…or something in her pants.

        The volatility of small sample surveys illustrated here in Rasmussen’s May 2 update. Especially when you screw with the numbers.

        I like the aggregate averages at RCP. But even there. if you take into account a three point probability of error or whatever, it’s still a virtual dead heat between those two. Plug in Sanders? Well……..pass the dip.

        1. Thanks for this. I am not the biggest fan of polls out there, but this struck me as something interesting. If people don’t get the candidate they want, they don’t vote at all? Interesting approach…

          1. That could be one reason. It might involve more than just choice of candidate, though. Go a little deeper than that.

  2. I wonder if a third party candidate will show up last minute and really mess up the predictions. It’s an odd time with a segment of Rep voters strongly disliking Trump and a segment of Dem voters strongly disliking Clinton.

    Love that expression in the photo, too. She is not happy!

    1. Ever see that on the face of your daughter, that look? I see that all the time on my younger granddaughter.

      1. Oh, yeah, though not in a serious way! When my daughter was about that age, she had “the look”, which was similar. She would do it whenever we’d ask. We would say, “Show us the look”, and she would tip her head down, squint her eyes, make a serious, slightly angry face, and wait for the crowd to laugh. It was very cute.

        1. My granddaughter uses that look and when she does? She entirely and wholeheartedly means it. I admire that greatly.

          1. I think it may have started out that way for my daughter, but “the look” was so darn cute, we couldn’t help but smile. So, it evolved into entertainment, which made her giggle, too. This was when she was only a year or two. A few years later, she had her entirely serious I’m-not-happy look that meant something.

    2. There are at least 28 other political parties standing candidates in the 2016 election.
      The Green Party, the Libertarian Party, and the Constitution Party are probably the only ones that have satisfied enough of the various ballot access rules to get recognized by enough States to present any sort of alternative to voters. Write-ins might be available depending on the State.

      But at this point, only Sanders and Trump are the only candidates with enough political capital to present any sort of threat to the legacy Parties.
      Trump might do it if he gets screwed in Cleveland.
      Bernie won’t.

      1. I wonder if the Republicans would offer an Independent candidate as an alternative to Trump. Some Bernie supporters say they would write him in over voting for Clinton.

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